# Phase 7 Part 2: Baseline Re-estimation on Clean Index

## 2.1 Baseline: Clean Rolling 2c Index

- N = 4,049, N_countries = 164
- R² = 0.0594

| Variable | Coefficient | SE | p-value |
|----------|-------------|-------|---------|
| Z_1 | 1.179*** | 0.395 | 0.0028 |
| Z_2 | -0.150** | 0.059 | 0.0112 |
| Z_3 | 0.006** | 0.002 | 0.0192 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.002*** | 0.000 | 0.0000 |
| kaopen | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.1176 |
| log_rel_opw | -0.051*** | 0.013 | 0.0001 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -0.003 | 0.005 | 0.5987 |

## 2.2 Component Regressions (Rolling)

| Component | Z₁ | p | Z₂ | p | Z₃ | p | R² | N |
|-----------|-----|---|-----|---|-----|---|-----|---|
| Growth (rolling) | 0.523 | 0.558 | -0.124 | 0.356 | 0.005 | 0.338 | -0.073 | 4,049 |
| Inflation (rolling) | -3.246*** | 0.000 | 0.463*** | 0.000 | -0.018*** | 0.000 | 0.044 | 4,049 |

## 2.3 OADR Spline on Clean Rolling Index

| Knot | Below | p | Above | p | R² |
|------|-------|---|-------|---|-----|
| 15% | 1.314*** | 0.000 | 1.377*** | 0.000 | 0.0974 |
| 20% | 1.462*** | 0.000 | 1.136*** | 0.004 | 0.0948 |
| 25% | 1.535*** | 0.000 | 0.447 | 0.444 | 0.0916 |
| 30% | 1.452*** | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.856 | 0.0945 |

## 2.3b OADR Spline on Growth Component (Rolling)

| Knot | Below | p | Above | p | R² |
|------|-------|---|-------|---|-----|
| 15% | -5.686*** | 0.000 | -1.274* | 0.081 | -0.0766 |
| 20% | -4.958*** | 0.000 | 0.073 | 0.938 | -0.0812 |
| 25% | -4.072*** | 0.000 | 1.053 | 0.434 | -0.0714 |
| 30% | -3.522*** | 0.000 | 2.256 | 0.312 | -0.0620 |

## 2.4 Life Expectancy Quadratic

- LE coef: -0.0270 (p=0.0000)
- LE² coef: 0.000323 (p=0.0000)
- Turning point: 41.8 years
- R² = 0.0936, N = 4,049